The 2026 World Cup’s expanded 48-team format guarantees fresh faces and potential Cinderella stories. While traditional powerhouses dominate headlines, these under-the-radar squads have the tactics, young talent, and momentum to shock the world. Here are 10 dark horse teams that could rewrite the script across North America.
1. Ukraine: Europe’s Resilient Warriors
Why They’ll Surprise:
- Reached 2023 EURO quarterfinals despite wartime disruptions.
- Key Player: Mykhailo Mudryk (Chelsea) – blistering speed on counters.
- Tactical Edge: Coach Serhiy Rebrov’s 3-4-3 exploits wide spaces.
2026 Path: Likely to face weaker CONCACAF/Asian teams in group stage.
2. Morocco: Africa’s Trailblazers Reloaded
Why They’ll Surprise:
- 2022 World Cup semifinalists adding youth (Bilal El Khannous, 19).
- Secret Weapon: PSG’s Achraf Hakimi – best attacking fullback globally.
- Cultural Boost: First Arab team to host (potential 2030 bid momentum).
3. USA: Home Soil Advantage on Steroids
Why They’ll Surprise:
- 2023 Nations League champs; 65% of squad will be in prime (25-29).
- X-Factor: Dual-national recruits (Folarin Balogun, Malik Tillman).
- Stat: USMNT went unbeaten in 23 consecutive home games (2021-2023).
4. Canada: Alphonso Davies & The New Gold Generation
Why They’ll Surprise:
- Ended 36-year World Cup drought in 2022; host cities include Toronto/Vancouver.
- Speed Kills: Davies (Bayern) + Tajon Buchanan (Inter) = fastest wings in 2026.
- Weakness: Goalkeeping depth behind Milan Borjan (38 in 2026).
5. Australia: Asia’s Tactical Chameleons
Why They’ll Surprise:
- Reached 2022 Round of 16 with pragmatic 4-5-1; now developing youth.
- Emerging Star: Nestory Irankunda (18) – dubbed “Aussie Mbappé.”
- Historical Edge: Beat Denmark & Tunisia last World Cup as underdogs.
6. Colombia: South America’s Unpredictable Force
Why They’ll Surprise:
- James Rodríguez resurgence + Luis Díaz’s Liverpool form.
- Wild Card: Radamel Falcao (40 in 2026) – veteran leadership off the bench.
- 2026 Bonus: Mexico host cities reduce travel fatigue.
7. Nigeria: Africa’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
Why They’ll Surprise:
- U-20 World Cup 2023 finalists signal talent pipeline.
- Attack Trio: Victor Osimhen (Napoli) + Ademola Lookman (Atalanta) + Samuel Chukwueze (AC Milan).
- Achilles Heel: Political interference in federation decisions.
8. Poland: Lewandowski’s Last Dance
Why They’ll Surprise:
- Robert Lewandowski’s final World Cup push (37 in 2026).
- Youth Injection: Nicola Zalewski (Roma) and Jakub Kamiski (Wolfsburg).
- Group Stage Luck: Likely Pot 3 placement avoids top-tier opponents.
9. South Korea: Beyond Son Heung-min
Why They’ll Surprise:
- Lee Kang-in (PSG) emerging as creative successor to Son.
- Coaching: Jurgen Klinsmann’s tournament experience.
- 2022 Proof: Beat Portugal to reach knockouts.
10. Ukraine: Dynamic Duo Driving Hype
Why They’ll Surprise:
- Midfield maestro Giorgian de Arrascaeta (Flamengo) + Darwin Núñez (Liverpool).
- Expanded Format Perk: CONMEBOL’s 6.5 slots favor consistent wcqualifiers.
- Dark Horse History: 2018 quarterfinalists with similar underdog status.
5 Factors That Fuel Underdog Success in 2026
- Travel-Light Groups: Teams based in one host region (e.g., Canada-only groups).
- Set-Piece Mastery: 43% of 2022 underdog goals came from dead balls.
- 5-Sub Rule: Deep benches help underdogs sustain high pressing.
- VAR Pressure: Less-fancied teams now get fairer big-match calls.
- Youth Quotas: FIFA’s 26-man squads encourage riskier young picks.
Expert Verdict: Best Underdog Bet for 2026
Canada emerges as the top underdog contender due to:
- Home Support: 75% of group stage matches likely on home soil.
- Speed Revolution: 7 players clocked over 35 km/h in 2023 MLS.
- Expanded Knockouts: 32-team round of 32 lowers bar for upsets.